One of the most highly anticipated games for Nintendo Switch 2 is a brand new 3D Mario platformer, and it’s been almost eight years since Super Mario Odyssey, the last 3D Mario platformer, was released on Nintendo Switch, and I believe Mario’s next 3D outing is just around the corner this year. In this article, I’ll outline the reasons why I believe we’ll see a brand new 3D Mario title this year.

1. Solidifying the Switch 2 lineup

Some fans seem to think that the Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Direct on April 2 showed us every first-party title coming to Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025.

Respectfully, I do not agree with that view.

Excluding Nintendo Switch 2 Edition titles, that would mean 2025 would have five first-party Switch 2 exclusives – Mario Kart World, Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour, Donkey Kong Bananza, Drag x Drive, and Kirby Air Riders. Out of these five titles, Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour and Drag x Drive are smaller eShop-only titles.

Mario Kart World is guaranteed to be the Switch 2’s first big title, and while Donkey Kong Bananza is large in scope and will certainly do well, it doesn’t have the same potential to be a big hit on the same scale as 3D Mario.

Nintendo’s revenue and release cadence is usually propped up by two big titles every year, with or without a new Pokemon title.

In order to keep the Switch 2’s momentum, a big Switch 2 exclusive is required at the end of 2025, and 3D Mario fits the bill.

2. Keeping cards close

In the last few years, Nintendo has changed their approach with announcing new games. The company now prefers to keep the announcement-to-launch window as small as possible. The biggest example in recent years was Super Mario Bros. Wonder in 2023. That year, some pundits claimed that Nintendo wouldn’t release any big title other than The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom… until they were proven wrong in late June 2023, when Nintendo officially announced that Super Mario Bros. Wonder was releasing in October 2023, 3 – 4 months after its initial reveal.

What this means is that Nintendo still has plenty of leeway to announce a brand new 3D Mario game for 2025. I’m expecting the next Nintendo Direct to happen sometime in late June to late July 2025, and that would be the best place to reveal a brand new 3D Mario game coming out in October/November 2025.

A 3-to-4 month gap from announcement to release is not unheard of and has become part of Nintendo’s playbook. It helps Nintendo focus their efforts on marketing titles coming out in the near future, and it doesn’t seem to dampen their success.

One concern Nintendo might have is how a 3D Mario game would draw away attention or sales from Donkey Kong Bananza. For that reason, I believe that the new 3D Mario game has a 50% chance of being revealed after Donkey Kong Bananza’s release.

3. EPD Tokyo can work on two projects at the same time

It’s currently speculated among Nintendo communities that EPD Tokyo, the group that worked on Super Mario Odyssey, has only worked on Donkey Kong Bananza in the last several years and had no bandwidth to work on 3D Mario at the same time.

This is very hard to believe for several reasons.

First, Nintendo EPD groups are known to have worked on multiple projects in parallel, even if one is on a lower priority than the other.

Second, while there are many signs indicating that Donkey Kong Bananza was developed by EPD Tokyo, the game seems to borrow heavily from Super Mario Odyssey, as you can see from its UI, gameplay style, and look-and-feel. The team wouldn’t be making the game from scratch, and this doesn’t preclude the development of a 3D Mario title at the same time.

Third, it’s been 8 years since the launch of Super Mario Odyssey. That’s more than enough time and bandwidth to work on Donkey Kong Bananza and 3D Mario, especially with Donkey Kong Bananza borrowing heavily from Super Mario Odyssey.

In fact, one year ago a leaker shared that two internal codenames for Nintendo projects that align with both Donkey Kong Bananza and a new 3D Mario game – SilverStar and SPRed respectively.

Given that Super Mario Odyssey’s codename was RedStar, if Donkey Kong Bananza was built off the base of Super Mario Odyssey, the SilverStar codename would make a lot of sense for it.

That would also mean that SPRed is the codename for the new 3D Mario game on Switch 2. Nintendo uses the word “Red” to indicate that the game has something to do with Mario.

The same leaker shared other codenames that turned out to be true, such as “Edward” (The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom) and “Banquet” (Super Mario Party Jamboree).

We also have to remember that in this day and age, it isn’t unusual for Nintendo games to be worked on not just by internal EPD groups, but also outside contractors from other companies which can help with heavy lifting. A small team from EPD Tokyo could have been working on the Donkey Kong Bananza with lots of help for other grunt work from trusted Nintendo partners, while a big team works on the core of the new 3D Mario game.

4. The sales potential of 3D Mario

3D Mario games have always guaranteed to be big hits regardless of platform.

As of May 18, 2025, Super Mario Odyssey has sold close to 30 million units on Nintendo Switch, and Super Mario 3D Land sold almost 13 million units on Nintendo 3DS. There is at least one 3D Mario game in the top 10 bestselling titles for every console since Nintendo DS and Wii.

On the other hand, there are no Donkey Kong titles in the top 10 bestselling software charts for any console since the DS and Wii.

Put yourself in the shoes of Nintendo Co, Ltd president and executive producer Shuntaro Furukawa – if you were presented with the option to green light either Donkey Kong Bananza or a 3D Mario game due to resource constraints, which would you pick?

If I were Mr. Furukawa, I would definitely go with 3D Mario, considering the past success of the 3D Mario series, and the high level of risk and lower sales potential of Donkey Kong Bananza.

Considering the existence of both the SilverStar and SPRed projects, this clearly shows that resources at EPD Tokyo are not a problem.

We also have to keep in mind that Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe greatly benefited from launching in the same year as Nintendo Switch, with a steady stream of evergreen sales lasting even till today. With Nintendo releasing Mario Kart World on the same day as Nintendo Switch 2, it’s not hard to imagine they would want to replicate this evergreen strategy with the new 3D Mario game coming out in late 2025.

Conclusion

From a business and resource management perspective, it’s a no brainer that a 3D Mario game will be released this year. The EPD Tokyo group had plenty of time to cook, and I believe we’ll see the fruits of what they’ve been working on in the last 8 years very soon.