Datamine: Here’s How Animal Crossing: New Horizons Determines Which Villager Decides To Move Out

Dataminer Ninji has unraveled the mystery behind one of Animal Crossing: New Horizons‘ most enigmatic mechanics: How it determines which villager wants to move out of the player’s island.

As it turns out, the truth is a bit more complicated than the popular theories like low friendship levels and not talking to them for long periods. In a series of posts on Twitter, Ninji breaks down the hidden formulae for villagers moving out, revealing that although friendship is taken into account, there is actually no magic method to make specific villagers move out.

You can read a summary of the key points below:

• Players must have at least 6 Villagers on their island before any consider moving out.
• On any given day, the percentage chance of a Villager asking to leave the island is determined by the formula “(V*5) + C” where:
  • “V” is the amount of Villagers players have
  • “C” is the number of days since the player last told a villager to leave or stay on the island (max 30).
  • There is a 5-day cooldown after telling a villager to leave or stay before this formula kicks in.
    • This can be skipped by resetting the game mid-conversation before telling the Villager to move or stay, the game will run the formula again the following day.
  • There is another 15-day cooldown after a villager officially leaves the island and frees up a housing plot.
• If the above formula goes through, the game will pick a random Villager who will ask to move out
  • Each Villager’s chance of being picked is based on friendship levels, determined by another formula “((300-a) + r):
    • “a” is the average friendship the Villagers have with all island residents.
    • “r” is the amount of residents with >200 friendship.
  • Friendship values range from 0 – 255, and starts at 25, meaning that the chance to move out starts at 27, and goes down as friendship levels increase.
• Villagers will be excluded from the move out chance if the following conditions are met:
  • House is being moved.
  • Birthday was within the past 7 days.
  • They were picked last time and told to stay.
  • Moved in the most recently.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments.